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发布时间:2024-09-11 02:01

| Jimmy Song

| Jhonny

2019 57գҰ (Binance) ڿ͹ʧ 7,000 ö BTC֮Ǻܿ쿴 Jeremy Rubin (رҺĿ) ĽҰ CEO Գķʽ˴εԡ

ģ@cz_binance (Գ) 㹫Щıҵ˽Կ (ЩԿһ)ͿɱȥĻЭһ (reorg) Ϊ

ȻʹҰǽ飬ݱҰ CEO Գ˵һЩ˽Э֮ƻˣ

ģ@cz_binance (Գ) 㹫Щıҵ˽Կ (ЩԿһ)ͿɱȥĻЭһ (reorg) Ϊ

ڱУ (Jimmy Song) ϸܿܵ鱳ļءijϣJimmy Song Ѿ֮ͨǰļҰ齫ҪѶٳɱ

1/ ͨѧ58ijɱ (ĿǰѾõйرҰ׵ȷϹϣֵ)

ͳɱ58*12.5 BTC = 725 BTC (ÿϻôͬĽ׷ã100%Ŀ󹤶ͬ飬עǰرڿ12.5 BTC)

2/ ֻ 75% Ŀͬ飬⽫ƽҪ 116 (൱ڱҰҪЩ75%Ŀ󹤵ڿԼ 1,450 BTC116*12.5=1,450) Դϳǰͬ 60% Ŀͬ飬ƽҪ 290 (ҪЩ󹤵ڿΪ 3,625 BTC) ϳǰ 55% ͬ⣬Ҫ 580 (ҪЩ󹤵ڿΪ 7,250 BTC)

3/ 7,250 BTC >7,000 BTCҪ 55% () ͬ顣58ҪΪ 60%Ϊ116Ҫ 65% Ӧأ174Ҫ 70% 232Ҫ 75% п󹤶ͬ飬ɱͻѸӡ

4/ κѡԭʼĿ˵ҲںܴķգΪ˷ķգЩЧڿԭ

5/ ݿ󹤶һȡĶãζľʱҪ 232 ʱ̵Ķࡣ飬մӺڿǮѸ󹤡Ұδ̫ࡣ

6/ ʧСΪ725 BTCһСı仯

7/ Ұܵʱͷյ˫ؼѹÿһµ鶼һҪϳ飬ͳɱΪ12.5 BTCҪеڿѸЭ () ܲסǴЭܾҪһ(144)(עǰرƽÿ10Ӳ1飬24Сʱ144)

У߽иȫۡ

·УԿ Ari Paul (Ͷʹ˾ BlockTower Capital Ͷܼ) Adam Back (ˣ˾ Blockstream ϴʼ) Ƿڷ磺

Adam Black () : رDzᷢġҶκαر򡢿󹤻ǿ߻ῼʾɡ2014 (Mt. Gox) 4.73Ԫʧ2016 Bitfinex 7,200Ԫʧ2019Ұ4,000Ԫʧȵȣ()#ûз

Ari Paul () ģһ뷨 Adam Back (ҲͬĹ۵)ȥûõġһЭ⣬൱򵥵¼Ҳܽ⡣

ϣAdam Ϊ鲻ᷢAri ΪʩʹΪܡ˭ǶԵأҪһЩ۷Ǵijʼ:

һ򵥵ģ

Ǽһdz򵥵ģͣ 100% () ԸҰ顣

׷ijǼҰÿһȡϵ (Ȼⲻ̫)ÿһ󹤵⳥Э (ȻһЩ󹤿ͬ⣬һЩ󹤲̫ͬ)ɹʶǼĿǰû˲ͬ (Ȼ⼫)Ҳû˻Ὠһÿɵǰ

ȣǿ󹤵ĺǶ١һӵ 10% Ҵ˴ι֮Ҫ100飬ζŸÿ󹤽ҪԼѾԭʼڳ10Ľ ( 100*10%=10) ӦĽ׷ãҲ 125 ö BTC ( 10*12.5=125) ԼӦ齻׷á

(ע(reorg)Ҳ׻عֻҪг51%ڵҽǰ¿ʼһֲ棬ֻ޳DZʱ (ͺĽ)ԭϵף·ֲ泤ȳԭ󣬾ͻᷢ顣ԼΪ·ֲ渲ԭЧǣڲӰ׵£عһʵҽס)

ҲΪÿ󹤽ܹڿ󲢻ôԼ10%齱ͿԵˣʵˡΪÿʱڣͿͨԼԭʼϼڿ󲢻10%齱 (Լ׷)ͬʱ÷֮ǰԭʼѾڳ10Ľ (Լ׷), ζŸÿ󹤻ΪҰʧ 125 ö BTC

ˣҰĿ󹤻ҪҰЩԭʼѾڳĽ  (Լ׷) ǡУÿ 0.5 BTCãҲܹҪλӵ10%Ŀ 130 ö BTC ( 125 + 0.5*10=130)

⻹ȫ⻹ڷ (risk premium)Է⡣ӵ10%Ŀ֮⣬ûԸʹñҰµǾ˷󹤱ڶԭʼڿ

ŬûгɹҰòͬҪô۷գҪôе˷ѵʧ⽫DzһҪ֣Ϊñļ׶ʱⷽء

ˣҰڵԺʼͼ 100 飬ǽò֧ 1,300 BTC ijɱ ( 100*12.5+100*0.5=1,300 12.5 DZر齱0.5 ǿÿڳ1ܻ֮õĽ׷)Դձ 7,000 BTCҲҰ 5700 BTCӱҰĽǶΪһijΪǿһǮ

ĺʲôԵǣ齫֤رĻģΪҰǿƶ100飬κ㹻ǿʵҲͬ顣

⽫ᵼ˫ (double spending) ijԣκ100н˽׵ˣòΪŪ׷ʲôķʵϣͨпܻᵼ³ֱȵǰʧ 7,000 BTC ģ˫⣡ڱرϽн׵˵ⶼشĸţΪǵҰܹ飬û˻3-6εĽȷϴ

仰˵̼ҡûҪܴܺͷۣǣҪʹӦԿܵ˫⡣

ȵȣǻûС͵(ڿ)ʲô!

ˣǷdzܵģΪ»ᾭʹ˶Եֿ

һѡ

齫һķֲһΪľӵ55%100飬ϳǰζҪԼڳ 1,000 (Ҫ2ʱ)ֵı仯Ҳ൱УҪڳ 500 黹 1,500 鶼Ϊ档

ӵ 99% ҲҪڳ 101 (ԼҪ 20 Сʱ)(עǰرƽԼÿ10ڳһ飬101ʱԼΪ20Сʱ)

£ԭʼϣԷĿ󹤡ԭʼƣΪڿʼʱ100顣

֧ԭʼ಻Ҫ100Ľ̼ҡûǶпܻᲹԭʼϵĿ󹤡ǿ׵ز󹤣ԭʼһʸѻһ UTXO (δʹý) UTXO ֻԭʼЧ㹻ߣǺܶ󹤶ᱻջתԭʼڿ

ҪָԭʼϻһûǷ𹥻ĺڿ͡ҲᷢƵĽ (漰׵ UTXO Ϳ)Դԭʼͨߵ󹤡

һDZҰҰЩ̼Լûж˵Ҫ뷢𹥻ĺڿͽжˡ

ڿѾӱҰȡ 7,000 BTC˺ڿͿԽȫڼ󹤼ԭʼڿ֯顣

֮£Ұ뻨 1,300 BTC + ڿΪֹԸ⻨ѵĽ+/̼/ûֹԸ⻨ѵĽȻһʧܵĶDZҰΪֵû 1,300 BTC ͷڿ ( 13 BTC * ׵ȷϴ)鲢ԱҰ

ܽ

ڸӵǻк߲ܶɿ豸Щ׷ڿͿԼ󹤣ԶԱҰ˵һʧܵսҰеÿһԼڴ˴εʧʽ

һճ־õʵֻʦһ鷽Ψһ˾ǿ󹤡ЩǮͨĽ (ԱҰߺڿ) 󹤡ϽDZرЭƳԣıijɱdz߰

Dzȥԭģʹڴģ֮Ҳˡ鲻˺˵ߣҲ˺ˡһ޴ļ嶯ȥıرҵĽʷ

οӣ

https://medium.com/@jimmysong/reorg-scenarios-binance-hack-edition-849fc7e7df07

׷΢ŹںţUnitimes߸˹۵㣬ѶͶ߾ݴ˲Ե

α༭ HN666

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